First, from Fortune Magazine: It's time to buy a house again.
I'd love for this to be correct. One thing though: we never had a lot of new homes here in the center metro area of L.A., unless you count condos. And a lot of those new condos still haven't sold.
Next, from Rob Hahn via AOL, a rebuttal to the above article: Is it really time?
Rob slices and dices the stats used in the Fortune Article and comes up with a different take.
Then, from yesterday's L.A. Times: Banks may be forced into agreeing to short sales.
I read this with delight, until I got about half-way through the article. Then, it said that banks can still refuse the short sale if they don't like the sales price. So, what's the point?
And finally, from A. Lazo in today's L.A. Times: There really is a shadow inventory, and it's depressing prices.http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/03/unlisted-shadow-supply-of-18-million-homes-looms-over-housing-market.html
I don't want to argue with the statistics experts -- Core Logic in this case -- but it bears repeating that no one set of statistics can be applied to hyper-local real estate markets.
What's your take on our market, dear reader?
Call me confused. :)
ReplyDeleteEither mid tier/upper middle tier (400k-750K) areas of LA still have a ways to fall or they are becoming markets like Manhattan, NY that historical metrics ( median income/median price, cost rent vs buy, etc...) no longer apply.
My instinct and my logic tells me they still have a ways (10-20%) to fall, but the other alternative wouldn't shock me.
The only thing I'm fairly confident (IMHO, of course) of is that regardless if they fall or not they sure aren't making any significant gains for 2-10yrs.
Congrats on your numerous awards!
Tony, thanks for the kudos. Also, I am confused too, and agree with your prediction.
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