Sunday, June 15, 2008

Another explanation of how it all happened -- population estimates were very inflated

For your Sunday reading, here's an article from the Arizona Republic (I'm in Phoenix). This is a fascinating look at how a government's own statisticians can be way off the mark in estimating future populations, and the serious consequences those predictions can have. It looks at the community of Buckeye, which was a hell hole and not even a suburb yet when I grew up in Phoenix. Somehow, however, the estimators predicted that this place would have a population of 2 million by 2030, and it began to grow accordingly. Now, it's ground zero for the foreclosure bomb (although I have to say, the other vast suburban metro areas of Phoenix don't appear to be hit that hard at all).

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