Another explanation of how it all happened -- population estimates were very inflated

For your Sunday reading, here's an article from the Arizona Republic (I'm in Phoenix). This is a fascinating look at how a government's own statisticians can be way off the mark in estimating future populations, and the serious consequences those predictions can have. It looks at the community of Buckeye, which was a hell hole and not even a suburb yet when I grew up in Phoenix. Somehow, however, the estimators predicted that this place would have a population of 2 million by 2030, and it began to grow accordingly. Now, it's ground zero for the foreclosure bomb (although I have to say, the other vast suburban metro areas of Phoenix don't appear to be hit that hard at all).

Senior Care, The Housing Market, and the Law of Unintended Consequences

I've been thinking about the following since I returned from Phoenix. Arizona seems to have senior citizen care down. Lots and lots of independent living places, assisted living places, and senior group homes. Which got me thinking: hasn't the explosive growth in senior housing been largely fueled by the rise in home equity? That's how most seniors are paying for their care-based living arrangements, yes? From the (huge) profit they make when they sell the family home? For example, Belmont in Burbank charges (I think) a minimum of $5,000 a month. A care facility can easily cost much more. So, what happens to our seniors and their living arrangements when home equity takes a dive and they no longer have the ability to pay? I think we are going to see many changes in the senior housing industry, and they won't be good.