Is the housing market going to crash soon?

Every day, somebody tells me that the housing market is going to crash.  I am not an economist or statistician, so take the following with a grain of salt.  With all due respect to the experts, I just don't see the fundamentals necessary for a crash in the near future.  

• First, yes, our housing price rises here in CA can't go on forever.  I said that in 2006, too.  Prices are now above what they were in 2008, though. Housing prices are high due to two factors in L.A.: 1) not enough inventory, and 2) there's a lot of money concentrated here.
• Currently, unemployment is low.  It would have to go up by several points to have an impact on local housing sales.  Last time, it was 8%-9% before we saw a lot of foreclosures here.
• Interest rates are still relatively low.  When I started in this business, interest rates for mortgage loans were around 8%.
• Banks and lending institutions have tightened up quite a bit and are no longer giving mortgage loans to anybody that can fog a mirror.  Buyers now have to show that they can actually pay a mortgage back.
• Even at the height of the Great Recession, home prices here in the Southland, in areas with desirable housing stock, low crime, and good schools, only went down an average of 8%.  Do the math -- even if there's a 10% price reduction, say, in Sherman Oaks, Studio City, or Burbank, an $800,000 home here will be selling for $720,000.  That's not really enough of  difference to make a home super-affordable.

Again, I'm not an expert, but I know what I see.  Could there be cataclysmic event that turns the market on its ear? Sure, but if that happens, we will all have bigger fish to fry than housing prices.  And on that cheery note...feel free to challenge my assumptions or ask questions.

The Federal Reserve says they are definitely, positively going to raise interest rates.

Check out this article from today's L.A. Times.  Click here for link.  Yup, the Fed now says that there is no doubt they'll raise interest rates, and soon. Nooooo!  The good news is that the rise will come gradually, so it doesn't shock the economy.

What that means for home buyers: interest rates have been gradually inching up this fall anyway, but it means that buyers will have higher mortgage payments than in the recent past.

What this means for home sellers: there will be fewer buyers, especially for starter homes and condos.  There probably may still be multiple offers on properties, because inventory is short.  However, if a house for sale sits on the market for more than a few weeks, a price reduction is probably warranted.

No interest rate hike in 2015? That's good news for buyers.

Check out this article from today's L.A. Times here.  Interest rates, including mortgage interest rates, won't be going up this year. This contradicts pretty much everything the Fed has been saying about interest rate hikes since the beginning of 2015, but hey, I'll take it.

Surprise! Mortgage interest rates are really low.

In defiance of expectations, mortgage interest rates moved down this week.  All the financial experts said they'd be going up and we'd probably hit 5% by the end of the year.  Just shows what experts know, eh?  Right now, rates look like this:
30 year fixed: 20% down = 4.00% with no points
30 year fixed: 10% down = 4.125% with one point

It may be time to pull the trigger on purchasing a home.  BTW, my 11485 Moorpark #17, Studio City is open on Saturday from 2-5 and 629 N. Keystone in Burbank is open on Sunday, 2-5.

Home buyers and (some) home sellers are coming out of the woodwork in the San Fernando Valley

Something must have happened during last weekend's rockets' red glare, because all of a sudden, everybody I know is busy with several sets of home buyers and some home sellers.  What happened to you, people?

Perhaps buyers realized that lots of home prices might come down a bit in the next few months.  That often starts to happen in early July. Maybe sellers realized that prices have peaked for the year, too.  And then, interest rates are still low and haven't seen the predicted rise.

Nobody can predict the market, but I would recommend that sellers sell now, especially in the areas of Burbank and Studio City -- people want to buy homes in good school districts before their kids start school.  And, if interest rates do go up, as all experts predict they will by the end of the year, that will have a negative effect on home prices.  And I would recommend that buyers buy now -- interest rates won't be this low much longer.

New interest rates and new r.e. stats

Yes, interest rates went up this week.  Again.  Conforming loan rates are now hovering around 4.2%-4.3%. The lenders that I've spoken with don't expect them to go down much in the near future, if at all.  They are still at historic lows, but that probably doesn't make you feel much better if you're a buyer.

And here are some interesting local stats from California Association of Realtors:

- From 2001 - 2007, all-cash purchases were about 6.2%-8.4% of total sales,

- In April 2013, all cash purchases were 29.3% of total sales,

- 27% of California sales are to non-U.S. citizens,

- 66% of investor buyers are holding for the long term,

- 75% plan to hold for about 6 years,

- 25% are flippers,

- 67% investors are paying cash,

- For those who sell, the return on investment is around 14%,

- 78% of investor purchases were single family homes,

- 14% were multi-family homes.

Will this all change? Of course.  When? I don't know.  But the real estate market has really surprised all of us with its quick turn arounds in the last few years.

From Sunday's L.A. Times: Read the second part of the headline first. Home prices soar (what?) AND monthly payments are more affordable

Sunday's L.A. times had a syndicated column by Lew Sichelman entitled Home prices soar in some areas as buyers opt for more expensive properties.  Lower mortgage rates are making monthly payments more affordable.  Does it seem that those are two different subjects to you? Well, the first part of the article says,

"[Prices] didn't just rise, though. They shot up by double digits, as much as 54.5% in Kansas City [Kansas City? Really?], almost 39% in Detroit and nearly 28% in Indianapolis from the second quarter last year, according to a survey of the nation's 32 largest metro areas by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Of course, house prices didn't really soar that much in a year's time. What's far more likely is that people in those places and several others bought more than the usual number of expensive properties in the April-May-June period." Okay, that explains it.  
The article then switches horses in mid-stream and discusses low interest rates. 
One consultant states, "Buyers also shouldn't worry about whether prices will continue to fall... because mortgage rates have only one way to go, which is up. Even a small jump in rates will wipe out any savings buyers might achieve by waiting for prices to drop further." And here's an interesting mathmatical take-away: " If prices remain flat and rates rise a full percentage point, to 5.5% from 4.5%, the same $200,000 house will cost 12% more each month to own, Yamano said. And if rates should spring up 2 percentage points, to 6.5%, your mortgage payment would jump 25%."  I don't think anybody needs to worry about interest rates rising today, but the article is correct: they have no place to go but up, and I think it's a good idea for would-be buyers AND sellers to be mindful of this.

House (tale of woe) of the week and news you can use

The house pictured above is a foreclosure in Burbank's Rancho district.  My clients, who are well qualified and have been looking for a home for over a year, made a very smart, clean offer on this cutie. The dollar amount offered was in line with comparable neighborhood sales.  Alas, we learned that another higher offer came in at the same time.  We countered, but ...sigh.  Stay tuned for the outcome.

Now on to the really good news: mortgage interest rates are hovering around 4%, with points, for a conforming loan.  Jumbo loans have rates at low as 4.75%! Nobody is predicting an interest rate rise any time soon, either.

And here are a few tidbits for condo owners.  California has passed a law permitting solar panels to be installed on any condo.  An HOA can issue restrictions, but those restrictions can't be prohibitive.  Also, all condo projects and HOAs must now allow pets! Yes, once again, an HOA can issue restrictions (like a weight restriction, for example) but the restrictions can't be prohibitive.