How can we miss you when you won't go away? Or the story of the Studio City condo

This is the story of the Studio City condo that my buyer closed on last month.  The names have been changed to protect the guilty.  Yes, this was one of the bad ones.

My buyer had made several offers already when this condo came on the market in early February.  Our offer on it was immediately accepted. Yay!  It was a short sale, but the short sale was approved in record time – also “yay” and “it’s a miracle” -- and we prepared to close 30 days later in mid-April.

A week before closing, the seller’s dad announced that they had no idea the condo was closing and they not only would not be leaving, they also would not sign the necessary paperwork to close it.  We were incredulous. How could that be? Well, turns out that they just hadn’t found a suitable place to move to yet.  At that point, not only had my buyer made moving plans that were difficult to alter, but his loan documents were ready, and the condo itself was about to go to foreclosure if it didn’t close shortly.

Through the coming days/weeks, the seller’s dad refused to give us a closing date or a move-out date.  Contract? Ha! It meant nothing to the sellers.  Nobody could budge them.  The communications were extensive – I have over 400 emails about this in my file and that’s just me (so much for you guys that think we Realtors just open doors and say, “Here’s the kitchen.”)  The sellers stopped communicating with those of us who they believed to be “against” them.  I pretty much assumed that this was a lost cause.

Where was the listing agent? Missing in action. Why didn’t my buyer client cancel the sale? Because the condo was perfect for him and, sadly, by late April he was already priced out of the Studio City housing market.

Although it is typically discouraged, my buyer reached out to the seller dad.  And seller dad began to communicate directly with the buyer.  They actually got somewhere (by this time the seller dad had pretty much alienated everybody else on the team, and my buyer has the magic touch.) Of course, my buyer had to do the accommodating. The foreclosure was postponed again. Whew!  And a month after it was supposed to close, the seller dad gave my buyer a date for both closing and for possession.  My buyer was able to move his plans around to accommodate the new date.

And the closing finally, finally occurred. The sellers moved out.  As much agony as we went through, my buyer client’s efforts made this happen.  We were thrilled to celebrate on his new patio last week, and toast the buyer’s persistence.

LA home prices up 19.6% last year -- but wait, there's more

Alejandro Lazo at L.A. Times has a great article today about year-over-year housing trends in the L.A. area.  Yes, prices were up in December 19.6% compared to December 2011.  Click here for the article, but read past the headlines -- there's some pretty significant info here (the emphasis throughout is mine):

The strong performance last month indicates that 2013 will also continue to bring home price gains, analysts said.

 

The gains came as foreclosures declined, housing inventory plummeted, mortgage interest rates hit record lows and demand from investors spiked.

In California, buyers can anticipate little new inventory on the market. A supply of only about 2 1/2 months' worth of single-family homes for sale was available statewide at the end of December, the California Assn. of Realtors reported Tuesday. A supply of six or seven months is considered healthy by most economists. Cash buyers and investors are also playing a big part in snapping up home inventory. Cash buyers bought up 33.8% of all resale homes last month, while absentee buyers purchased 29.1% of Southland homes in December.

Oh, those pesky cash buyers! But here's my take-away.  Prices aren't coming down any time soon.  The house you want for $700k will cost you $725k by the summer.  So you may want to think about getting in the game now...

 

 

Debunking the "shadow foreclosure inventory" rumor

Rumors goin' round: I continue to hear that the banks are holding on to a huge amount of foreclosed property.  Apparently, the banks are doing this in order to keep home values high and to not flood the housing market, thereby driving home prices down again.  The second part of the rumor is that the banks will release this "shadow" inventory at the first part of the year.  I've had strong doubts about this.  At this point, the banks have nothing to gain by holding anything.  Banks lose money by holding non-performing assets and gain money by making mortgages.

There's finally a study that debunks the shadow inventory myth.  Today, Lansner on Real Estate says foreclosures in the state are down by half.  Here's the link.  And here's a quote:

“We continue to hear about the foreclosure wave that is coming after the election or after the New Year. There is clearly no foreclosure wave in sight,” Michelle Lenahan writes in Foreclosure Truth...".

 

 

Why foreclosure reform might be a good thing

This property is 10633 Chiquita in the Universal City area of Toluca Lake.  I sold this to Carlos and Elaine back in 2007 for $867k.  It had been extensively remodeled and was gorgeous.  Unfortunately, Carlos and Elaine fell on hard times (didn't everybody?) and attempted to modify their loan last year.  RCS, the servicer, gave them the run-around.  At the beginning of this year, just as the owners began to consider the short sale process, the lien holders foreclosed on the owners.

And then turned around and sold it to an investor for $440,000, stating that it was a 2+1 instead of a 3+3.

But somehow, before that, RCS couldn't be bothered to reduce the interest rate for Carlos and Elaine even a little bit, let alone write down principal.  Or give them time to short sale it.

Why not? If the lien holders were willing to take such a big hit, for way under market value, why couldn't they modify the original loan? Your guess is as good as mine.

Something is really, really wrong here.

By the way, the house is back on the market now in the mid-$500's and the listing agent (and I) think it will go for the mid-$600's.  That's a tidy little profit for the current owner.

Shortage of homes creates fierce competition, says L.A. Times

Just as I've been saying and buyers have been experiencing, today's L.A. Times has a front page story about our current market, its low inventory and how wildly competitive it is.  Click here for link.  The entire article is fascinating; here are some of the more succinct quotes:

"Housing inventory has sunk to levels not seen since the bubble years. The number of American homes with a "for sale" sign hit 2.5 million in April, the lowest number for an April since 2006."

"The much-predicted foreclosure wave that was expected to dump more homes onto the market has not materialized. Fewer borrowers are entering default, and banks are better managing the properties they do have on their books."

"Also important is having enough cash to make up the difference between the negotiated price and whatever the appraised value of the home turns out to be, he said. (Lenders won't provide a mortgage for more than a home's appraised value.) Many deals these days are falling apart because appraisals are coming in low, given how many recent comparable sales have been foreclosures or other distressed properties."

From today's L.A. Times: What it's like to lose your house

L.A. Times runs a regular "Postcards from the Recession" column.  Today, the column has a terrific, first-person article about what it's like to lose your home to foreclosure/short sale.  The title should link; if not, click here.  The writer, Kathy Gosnell Seiler, is a copy editor at the LAT.

The Rapture: good for the real estate market or bad for the real estate market?

...It depends, but mainly bad.  Those of us left behind will have to contend with empty houses, unwatered yards, and unpaid condo association fees.  And that will have a depressive effect on property values.  So if you're a seller, my advice is to sell your home within the next six hours.

But if you're a buyer, here might be your chance for some real bargains.  Houses don't hold up well when they sit empty, so plan on doing some fixing.  Hey, maybe this is an idea for a new HGtv show -- how about "Fix this Rapture"?

And if you're a bank, you can look forward to getting your oily mitts on yet more property when you have to foreclose on all these empty homes.

And if you're a Realtor, you will not be getting raptured (except for maybe a few of you in Texas), and there will be plenty of houses to show and sell.  Begin courting bank asset managers today to position yourself as a post-foreclosure rapture specialist!

The real estate news is bad...or IS it?

By now, everybody knows that the national housing stats released yesterday were pretty dreadful.  Slowest month since whenever, etc., etc.  And yes, I've seen that the market has slowed down this summer (although the end of August is almost always slow).  But wait! Today's Burbank Leader's headline is Local Housing Market Better than Most.  It goes on to detail how Burbank real estate and Glendale real estate sales have actually been pretty good, and how homprices have actually risen year over year.  Not by much, but still...

And then there's another AP article buried deep in today's L.A. Times Business section, titled More Mortgage Modifications Seem to be Sticking.  It goes on to say that this news possibly debunks predictions of a huge wave of defaults to come.

So maybe there is another side to the story.  And if you're thinking about real estate in Studio City, Burbank, Hollywood Hills or pretty much anywhere in greater L.A., keep in mind the other big housing statistic: interest rates are at historic lows.

House prices stabilizing

Hi, L.A. Times clipping service here. The title above links to today's story "Housing upturn occurring in some parts of So. Cal., data show." This is not news to those of us with our boots on the ground. Of course, there are all sorts of caveats in the article, and median prices are still lower than they were in 2006, but still.

But still indeed. There's also another L.A. Times story here, stating that mortgage professionals expect foreclosures to rise next year.

Foreclosures and statistics

For those of you waiting for an increase in home inventory due to foreclosures, and sure that the banks are going to dump a bunch on the market any minute, here's the latest from Realtors who handle many bank-owned properties: it's going to be a trickle, not a flood. One of the reasons: the banks don't want to dump a lot of houses on the market at once because it will depress prices further.

And Market Metrics has come out with this statistic: there is only a month-and-a-half supply of inventory right now in the SFV. No surprise. The supply of houses for sale is as low as I've ever seen it, not counting brand new condos.

Maybe there will be foreclosures on the market this summer after all

Lender extraordinaire Dana Dukelow sent me the following:
CA’s Foreclosure Moratorium a Sham… We’ve Been Lied To By Our State Government
By Mandelman - Last updated: Monday, June 22, 2009
Well, thanks to one of my loyal and eternally vigilant readers, Mandelman Matters has learned that California’s 90-day moratorium on foreclosures, which had the potential to be almost meaningless… well, as it turns out is actually much less than meaningless… it’s a sham.
Apparently, almost all of the lenders and servicers who were ostensibly not to be allowed to foreclose on homes during the 90-day period made possible by the moratorium on foreclosures passed by the legislature about a week ago, were able to get exemptions to the moratorium and did so BEFORE the foreclosure moratorium bill even passed the legislature! The exempted lenders and servicers don’t have to modify or prove they tried to modify a single mortgage before foreclosing on properties in California. In other words, nothing changed… essentially nothing… nada… not a thing.
Of course, what bothers me about this isn’t that the foreclosure moratorium won’t be effective, or that it won’t accomplish what it was supposed to accomplish… it never had a chance to accomplish much of anything anyway, which is why I chose to make fun of it in my article about how it’s purpose was to allow surfers to spend more time surfing summer breaks.
The point that offends me deeply is that our state government… and by state government I mean you, Arnold, flat out lied to us. And although I’ve come to expect that from many politicians, I don’t expect it from the Viennese weightlifter who is running things in Sacramento.
So, just so we’re all on the same page here…
Our state government announced that the legislature had passed a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures, saying that it would give people time to obtain loan modifications and the like. But, they also knew that something like 90% of all lenders and servicers in California had already applied for and received exemptions to the rule, effectively rendering the moratorium moot.
Are you kidding me? Did you guys really do this? Unbelievable. How dare you… Do you have no sense of what people are contending with out here in reality land. No, it’s all too obvious that you do not. You should be ashamed.
Here’s the link to the firms that are exempt from the California Foreclosure Moratorium:
http://www.corp.ca.gov/FSD/CFP/pdf/ExemptList.pdf

If you think there's nothing to buy out there...you're right

Yesterday, I searched the mls for all "active" single family homes in North Hollywood under $300,000. I found 34 homes. Virtually every one, every single one, was a short sale, foreclosure or probate -- and they all had offers on them already.

The way it works is this: for a short sale, the property can't be listed as "pending" until the bank signs off on an offer. But before that happens, the seller has to sign off -- and the seller may have several acceptable offers that they've already sent to the bank. They may not actually look at other offers if they've already done that, even if the property is still listed as active. The bank may just be taking their sweet time -- it usually takes them two months or more to approve a short sale. To recap, even though the property is listed as active, it's really "pending."

For foreclosures, the process is similar but faster. And recall that if the property is listed by a mega-lister foreclosure agent, they've been putting feelers out to investors -- and maybe even getting offers -- before the property even comes on the market.

Easier loan modifications and short sales. Are you listening, banks?

Regardless of what the banks would like you to believe, loan modifications and short sales should be getting easier to accomplish, thanks to the U.S. government. Here's a link to an article from today's L.A. Times.

Sunday reading -- from the L.A. Times and The New Yorker

The business section of today's L.A. Times contains two excellent consumer-oriented articles about foreclosure and loan modification. The first, Headed for Foreclosure? Here's What to Expect has definitions and a foreclosure timetable. The second, Common Loan Modifications Offered by Banks, delves into the types of loan modifications offered (warning: principal write-down is rare).

This week's The New Yorker offers one of the best articles on the mortgage meltdown crisis that I have read. It focuses on Florida, and is titled The Ponzi State, but the situations described are applicable to California and elsewhere. George Packer is the author. Unfortunately, you have to be a subscriber to read the article, but here's an abstract. The article is unique in that it profiles several different individuals that have been hurt by this downturn that haven't been much written about before, including folks that have never owned a home and state officials.

Short sale scam

Maybe I'm naive, but I just heard about this short-sale scam yesterday. Apparently, here's how it works. A seller lists his home for a short sale price. The buyer is a relative with a different last name -- so as far as the bank knows, it is certainly an arms-length transaction. The seller goes on living in the property after close of escrow, making much lower payments, through the relative on title, on the same house. The lender is none the wiser.

There is also subtle discouragement of other buyers and showings in order to further the scam. For example, the property is listed on the wrong mls, it is never available for showings, a potential buyer is told that there are so many offers in that the seller and bank will not look at any more, etc.

The vast majority of short sales are legit. But if a buyer you know encounters a difficult-to-see-buy short sale home, this kind of scam may be going on.

No wonder so many lenders are just not responding to short sales and just going ahead and foreclosing.

A great article about eviction from The New Yorker

Remember Addie Polk? She's the 90-year-old Akron lady who shot herself just as the sheriff was coming to evict her after her house was foreclosed. Here's the story from the Nov. 24, 2008 issue of The New Yorker. The article also explores preditory lending. Cut to the end: Addie survived, but it is unknown at present where she'll live.

Headlines and Bad Foreclosure Realtors

Okay, first the headlines from the LAT: Sales were up 65% last month over September 2007. This is largely due to the number of bargains and foreclosures that are on the market. And the median price in the county is now $308,500 -- that's what? Down 25% from last year? Or more? We are still seeing more price stability in many neighborhoods, though, such as Burbank, Toluca Lake, Studio City, etc. Yes, prices have come down, but not by 25%.

And, thanks to the new California law that requires lenders to contact home owners before they foreclose, there are now 61% fewer Notice of Defaults filed than there were last quarter, and 45% less Notices of Trustee Sales. So you're right if you think there's less inventory out there.

Unfortunately, the downturn in the market has not attrited out the lousy Realtors. Here's how not to sell your foreclosure or trust sale: list with a Realtor that doesn't return calls, doesn't give property status, doesn't list things correctly in the mls, doesn't bother placing pictures on the mls, and doesn't give correct lockbox or combo code information. I attempted to show four short sale or REO properties in Altadena this weekend; two houses we tried to see are listed with Reators like this. So if a short sale or foreclosure is on the market in the current climate for over 70 days and you're wondering why, it's likely because of the Realtor.

What bad national financial news may mean to our local real estate market

By now, everybody knows about the latest national financial crisis and many people are worried. What does it mean for our local real estate community? Here's my entirely subjective opinion. I think many buyers, who just took tentative steps to get into the market, will retreat again and wait for awhile. I think sellers will not put their properties up for sale if they don't have to. That leaves a market that will be mostly foreclosures (L.A.Times says 50%) plus new condo and new townhouse units (tons of new buildings are just being or have just been completed). At this point, I would not expect interest rates to bounce up -- the banks and lending institutions need to make money by lending it after all. But this Fall should be, uh, interesting.

Lancaster to refurbish foreclosed homes

Sorry that I haven't posted for a few days -- I've been wrapped up in our national political circus. Anyway, the L.A. Times reports here that the city of Lancaster is going to buy foreclosed homes, fix them up, and sell them to low income people. As we all know, Lancaster has pretty much been ground zero for L.A. County foreclosures. In the main, I think this is a very good thing. Philosophically, I think this is how a small municipality should be handling this problem.

Of course, the devil is in the details. The program has $4.1 million in funds and hopes to fix/resell up to 41 homes. So, that's about $100k per home, which includes the purchase price. If the purchase price is $80k to $100k, that's, uh, not a lot left over for more than a cosmetic fix. But this program is a step in the right direction. And many people will be happy that the money is coming strictly from the City, not from the state, county or federal government. Let's stay tuned and see how it goes.

Bessemer just closed

My Valley Glen listing at 13523 Bessemer closed today at $630,000, just about where the sellers and I thought it would. It was listed at $659,000, and is a 2050 sf 3+2 with a gorgeous, redone kitchen, air, hardwoods, redone baths and more. It has been listed since June 17th.

This sale provides an opposing view, I think, to all of the otherwise-bad real estate news out there. I had encouraged the sellers to wait until after the summer to list the house. I had thought, wrongly, that with "such a bad market" the house would be sitting for several months during the slowest part of the year (late summer). Thankfully, the sellers didn't listen to me. We had a contract five weeks after it listed. Also, considering the news about rampant price declines in local real estate, I encouraged the sellers to lower the price after four weeks. I was also nervous about two foreclosures one street over and what those houses might do to value. Once again, they smartly declined to do so, and we shortly thereafter received the good offer that resulted in a sale. I'm not saying the market isn't bad, mind you; but perhaps all is not as dire here in the SFV as the media would have you believe.