Sunday morning reading

There are two interesting articles in the newspapers today:  First, from the NY Times, the esteemed Robert Shiller says that we're NOT in another housing bubble, and the future of housing still has many clouds.  He does agree that the market is improving, however.

And Alejandro Lazo of the L.A. Times has a feature on the Calculated Risk blog.  Please note that CR is in this blogroll, and this blog is on CR's blogroll.  Yes, the blog is a little wonky, but for those of you that like stats, you might want to check it out.

Calculated Risk: Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent

Have you checked out Calculatedrisk.blogspot.com? Today's post has lots of info about the national real estate market. Check out the graphs here -- they basically say that we're back to year 2001 as far as price appreciation goes.
Calculated Risk: Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent: Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices. However it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted fo...

And CoreLogic has another take, courtesy of Calculated Risk

Thanks, Calculated Risk, for this:

CoreLogic: Home Price Index increased 0.7% between March and April

by CalculatedRisk on 6/01/2011 01:55:00 PM

Notes: Case-Shiller is the most followed house price index, but CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of February, March, and April (April weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows First Month-over-Month Increase since mid-2010

CoreLogic ... today released its April Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. increased on a month-to-month basis by 0.7 percent between March and April, 2011, the first such increase since the home-buyer tax credit expired in mid-2010. However, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.5 percent in April 2011 compared to April 2010 after declining by 6.8 per cent in March 2011 compared to March 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.5 percent in April 2011 compared to April 2010.
...
"While the economic recovery is still fragile and one data point is not a trend, the month-over-month increase based on April sales activity is a positive sign. ..." said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

I was expecting the CoreLogic index to increase over the summer because it is not seasonally adjusted, however the seasonal increases usually start in June (when the Spring home purchases start to closes). This is just one data point, but it is possible this index will have small increases all summer.

I'll have more later (and hopefully a graph).

From Core Logic: House prices decline, BUT r.e. prices showing signs of stability

This is from our friends at Calculated Risk.  Yes, it's national, not local figures, but please read the whole thing.  It indicates that home prices may be stabilizing. Link: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/corelogic-house-prices-declined-27-in.html

IMO, the L.A. Times is back! At least the biz section, anyway

Many of us were dismayed when the L.A. Times began to cut back on its editorial staff and pages a few years ago.  Personally, I missed the separate LAT real estate section and the L.A. Land blog, especially when the editor was the outstanding Peter Viles.  I turned to Calculated Risk and Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times for my real estate and business news. Caveat: while I don’t have a really sophisticated understanding of all things finance, I do try to keep up with the news, especially about banking, lending and real estate.

But regular business columnists David Lazarus and Michael Hiltzik have changed my mind about the quality of the L.A. Times’ business reporting.  Both are outstanding writers and produce business news columns that are informative, topical and easy to follow for us regular folks.  I’ll never give up reading NYT’s Gretchen, and this isn't a smackdown, but Lazarus and Hiltzik make reading the L.A. Times biz section an educational pleasure once again.