Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Are local home prices down 21%? Or 41%?




Here are some new statistics on our local housing market from today’s L.A. Times. Be careful when reading this article: It appears that while sales prices in the region (not sure how “region” is defined) are down 41%, L.A. County’s drop is 29%, and its median sales price is now $355,000. And, homes in the top third of the market have fallen 21%. Quite a wide swing in stats, I would say. Here are the relevant quotes from Peter Hong, the article’s author:

"Los Angeles County's median home sales price was $355,000, down 29% from a year ago.”

"Low prices did drive sales up 56% from a year ago. But a market bottom remains elusive, and a rebound in prices is not on the horizon." (Yes, I know this is not good news.)

"Last month's Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks home sales by price tiers, showed that Los Angeles-area homes priced in the bottom third of the market had fallen 42% from their peak prices by late last summer -- but those in the top third had dropped 21%."

Mr. Hong also points out that foreclosed homes have dragged down the average price. Here’s how that works. If the majority of homes on the market are foreclosures with their lower prices, the majority of sales will be foreclosed homes with their lower prices as well.


Now, more real estate news from today’s Burbank Leader. The news is good for sellers as the average home sales price in Burbank inched up to $544,166 in October. For Glendale, it went up to $673,365 – close to double the county average.

Jeremy Oberstein, the article’s author, also cites a market index for both cities. It is based on a month-to-month ratio of new listings, active listings and days a house is listed as available on the market. Burbank’s market index for October is 0.41, and Glendale’s is 0.32. An index higher than 1.20 indicates a healthier market for home sellers, while a figure less than 0.80 reflects a more advantageous market for home buyers. I have emailed Mr. Oberstein and asked about the source of the index data.

Here are the relevant quotes from the Burbank Leader article:

"In Burbank, the average sale price for a home inched up to $544,166 in October, slightly higher than September’s figure and 11.3% less than the same point in 2007."

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