2009 end of year wrap-up and list!

Hey, it’s the time for year-end lists and predictions, right? Why not from a local Realtor? So here are the most important real estate trends that I observed in 2009. Again, this is a very local, personal take, and is not necessarily in order of importance.

Mega-Listers of REOs/Foreclosures. Lots of foreclosures seem to be concentrating in the hands of a very few Realtors. Just try to buy one of these. Heck, just try to find out information on these. If you’re a mega-lister, please hire more staff and train them to answer questions, please. And please don’t pretend something is available when you’ve already sold it yourself. Deplorable.

The experts were wrong. Who was it that said, “Nobody knows anything”? How many times were we told by experts and statisticians that the market was crashing, it would have lost 50% of its value by this time, it would never come back, etc, etc? Yes, I know that there are regions that are in far more dire straits than ours. And the “foreclosure crisis” may not be over. But it appears, in spite of expert predictions and bubble market blogs, the local real estate market bottom has come and gone. To quote Elvis Costello, I used to be disgusted, now I’m really just amused.

Real estate marketing is more and more on line and less and less in print. This trend has been occurring for quite some time but it has become more evident this year. I can’t remember when I last placed a print ad in L.A. Times, for example. And the LAT doesn’t seem to care -- it doesn’t even have a real estate blog anymore, let alone a real estate section. I’m surprised, however, at how few Realtors really take advantage of all of the internet outlets out there. Not really surprising.

People still want to buy houses. Again, many buyers were scared off by bubble predictors and experts (see above). Many, however, still feel that a house is a worthwhile thing to own, even if one is not making money from it. Hey, we all need roofs over our heads, right? And with such low interest rates… Encouraging.

More and more properties are difficult to show. Realtors, most notably foreclosure listers, seem to be getting away from the call-first-then-use-the-supra-lockbox form of showing property (in fairness, this has never been big on the Westside or with high-end listings). Instead, it’s been “call for code” but your calls are returned, or “text for code” and good luck with that. Last weekend, for example, I placed calls to 17 Realtors for codes. Only two ever called back. See my mega-listers comments above. Frustrating.

Flippers are back. Many property flippers lost their shirts in 2007, 2008 and parts of 2009. I think it was because it looked easy, and many amateurs got into the flip business and didn’t realize the time and effort it took. Thanks for nothing, HGtv. But now, the pros are back – they seem to be buying up properties in bulk at court sales. The results have been mixed. I had a very good experience with a pro flipper on a NoHo house this summer – the house was well priced and well remodeled. I also just had a very bad flip experience just recently in Pacoima. Overpriced and NOT well-done. Mixed.

The bloom is off the lofts. Loft living in an urban area is really fun if you’re young, single, and have lots of money for your mortgage (these places aren’t cheap). But the loft concept trend/fad seems to be over – or is it just that there are too many lofts and condos out there fore sale? Predictable.

Multiple offers and deliberate underpricing. See past posts for more details. Who knew we’d ever see multiple offers again in our lifetimes? And as for underpricing, I don’t think it gets a sale made any faster than proper pricing (for example, see my listings on Birmingham, Lincoln and Chandler. Priced at what they’d likely sell for and sold fast). It just creates a lot of excitement, and heartbreak for buyers who would never be able to afford the house anyway. Frustrating.

Okay, this should be the part where I predict what’s going to happen in our local market in 2010. But I truly don’t know – and after the wild 2009 ride, I think I’d be crazy to predict!

My visit to mostly northeast, mostly Hispanic L.A.

Although I don't usually sell properties in San Fernando, Sylmar, Pacoima and Panorama City, clients Melinda and Gerardo and I looked at several townhomes and gated communities there this weekend. Home prices are much lower than they are in, say, Studio City. There are many short sales and foreclosures in all four of the communities. Here are my other impressions.

San Fernando: nicely laid out, quaint and quiet, probably because it's a separate city. It even has a cute trolley! We found several nice, newer townhouse communities and PUDs.* The home we liked the best had three big, beautiful chickens on the patio. What's that got to do with anything? Nothing, I'm just an animal lover.

*PUD stands for planned urban development. These communities consist of several stand-alone homes on smaller lots and have home owners associations and governing rules. They usually don't have more than 20 homes a piece, and a 5-home community is not uncommon. While few have amenities like pools and tennis courts, many have small outdoor yards and green belts. In my opinion, these communities are great ideas as they offer less congestion than condo communities. However, most developers don't agree as they can't make as much money by building them.

Sylmar: Actually in the L.A. city limits, and a little farther out than San Fernando. Again, nice, newer condos and PUD communities. Sylmar also has many communities with land leases. This means that you can purchase a home, but can only lease the land it's on. The upside is that the homes are much less expensive.

Pacoima: More urban, more congested than the other two. Hansen Hills, close to Hansen Dam is the nicer area, but Pacoima also butts up against many industrial areas. There were many street food vendors along Glenoaks Boulevard, and some had some pretty big operations going on. We were actually in escrow on a house in Hansen Hills, but it didn't appraise and it had lots of physical problems. That's right, it was a flip.

Panorama City: Much more congested than the other towns. Lots and lots of large condo developments, many of which are looking a little run down.

Happy and Merry!

Have a great holiday! I'll be back at going on about real estate next week.

Not much new as we head into Xmas

There's only a little r.e. news this week. The LAT and Daily News report that foreclosures are down and prices are up. One of my escrows is still wobbly, thanks to our favorite lender, Bank of America. (Apparently, BofA wants us to put a new roof on a fixer house that was sold at a fixer price.) Another escrow hasn't "set up" yet as we're still dealing with inspection issues. And I'm preparing for two new listings at the beginning of the year. Ho Ho Ho.

Don't flip this house

As has been reported here and elsewhere, the flippers are back. And these aren't the moms and pops who watch a lot of HGtv. These are the hardcore investors who buy properties for all cash at sheriffs' sales, run crews of workers through the house, and put them back on the market a month later for $100k profit. This past summer, I had a very good experience with a pro flipper of a house in North Hollwood.

It seems the fast, cheap and out of control pro flippers are back, too. This past week I've seen two of the sloppier, cheaper flips of the year. Yes, they have nice coats of paint and granite counter tops but, uh, hey the heater hasn't worked in years. They couldn't be bothered to replace funky old windows, scrape ceilings, strap water heaters, or make sure that kitchen cabinets don't bump into appliances when they're opened, among other things. Do they think that potential home buyers don't notice? Yes, when a buyer is initially dazzled by a house, they may over look things. But then there's this little inspection period, see? where the buyer is looking for reasons to walk. And during that period, we'll notice everything. Advice: flippers, do it all the way or don't do it at all.

An NYT explanation of why loan modifications aren't working

I always find Gretchen Morgenson, New York Times business columnist, to be very user friendly and readable. Here's her article from yesterday's New York Times about why loan modifications aren't working out so well. An interesting quote:

"The terms of loan modifications also make them especially failure-prone because the government calculates “affordability” (how much mortgage debt a borrower can actually manage) in a highly unusual way — raising serious questions for the housing market over all and for the program’s effectiveness for borrowers. For example, in devising what it considers an affordable mortgage payment, the program doesn’t account for all of a borrower’s debts — the first mortgage, second lien, credit card debt and automobile payments. Instead, it calculates affordability using only the borrower’s first mortgage payment, insurance and property taxes."

The article also goes on to address the issue of high-interest second mortgages held by major banks.

How to cut your monthly nut by at least one third

Okay, owning a home isn't for everybody. And I know I'll take flak for this. But.

The house in the picture is 9953 Aldea. It just closed. I'd been working with the buyers for quite awhile, and they went through the same thing that all buyers are going through now -- short inventory, rising prices, multiple offers. They finally decided to buy the house that they have been renting and living in for the past three years.

With me so far? Okay, their monthly rent was $3000/mo. Typical for a mid-Valley, 2500+ square foot pool home in good shape. Their mortgage now is $1568/month. Yes, property taxes will add an extra $500+ a month. They paid $565,000 and yes, their down payment was large. But still, thanks to today's low interest rates, they cut their monthly housing expense by about one-third. And that's not even taking into consideration the mortgage tax deduction.

Not bad, if you ask me. Just sayin'.

Rumor: stated income loans may make a comeback

I heard a rumor yesterday that stated-income loans may be available again after the first of the year. These are loans eliminate the verification of income requirement, and were popular until the real estate market started to go south. No lender has made these for many, many moons. I'm told the requirements, such as FICO scores, will be much stricter and there will be no 100% stated-income loans.

Opinion: the jury here is out. This will be good for many folks in the entertainment industry and other industries here in L.A. who have decent incomes, but are 1099'd instead of w-2'd because they go from job to job. The downside is that many folks will also take advantage and wildly overstate their incomes in order to get homes they can't really afford.

2400 W. Chandler is in escrow

A full price offer was signed today. Cross fingers.

806 Harvard sold for all cash

This house is 806 Harvard, Burbank. It's a very pretty, nicely maintained two-bedroom that listed last week for $659k. It sold last night for full price, all cash, no contingencies. Wow, where is all this cash coming from?

Realtors, forget listing new buildings

If you're a Realtor, you've probably salivated at the prospect of listing an entire new condo project for sale. All those units...all those commissions...but in reality, it's all that work. And it doesn't stop after the units close.

My buyer recently closed on a condo in a brand new North Hollywood building. The building is listed by the stalwart Aaron Scott, and he and I have probably talked more since the unit closed than we did during escrow -- mostly all about newly discovered construction problems. See the previous post on this subject.

On behalf of my client, Aaron and I have discussed construction issues, parking issues, alarm removals, contractors, cabinets, refrigerator doors, stoves that smoked, non-working toilets, intercom info, etc. etc. The Realtors on these new buildings handle everything -- they set up appointments with contractors, track down info, and communicate with the buyers and the buyers' agents about it all. In theory, a Realtor's responsibility ends when a property closes. But obviously, there's no such "statute of limitations" on these new places.

Tax credit for move-up -- or even move-down -- buyers

Yes, here's another article from the L.A. Times. This one is about the brand new tax credit -- up to $6,500 -- for home buyers that want to move up. Or even move down. The key word is "move." The article highlights some of the program details. For clarification, please check with your accounting professional (although this is so new that they may not know details, either).

LALand is defunct

My favorite real estate blog, The L.A. Times' real estate blog, LaLand, is no more. It is moving in with Money & Co., the Times' economic blog. I'm sorry to see it go, but I guess we all should have suspected this would happen -- everybody knows LAT is cutting itself down to the bone.

Peter Viles was the original editor of the blog, then Peter Hong, then Lauren Beale. They all had really good grasps on our local market and its various permutations. Yes, LALand's posters were infuriating more often than not, and I was occasionally a poster target for my perceived pro-real-estate market, anti-bubble posts. But it was stimulating, to say the least.

At least we still have L.A. Curbed.

Got rental income? Got extended family?

I've just listed this two-on-a-lot at 2400 W. Chandler in Burbank's Magnolia Park for $499k. The main house is a fixer with 800+ sf, living room with fireplace, spacious galley kitchen and separate laundry room. The side house is 500+sf with new kitchen cabinets, counter tops and appliances, a darling patio, plus other upgrades. The lot is 6865 sf and has lots of yard, greenery (the squirrels are hilarious) and a two-car garage. The neighborhood is superb and the property is opposite the Chandler bike and walking path. The schools and city services here are top-notch, too. More details and pictures can be found at www.judygraff.com.

Maybe this is why Glendalians are such bad drivers

Remember about a month ago when an informal poll showed that Glendale drivers are the worst in the county? Well, now we know why, thanks to the L.A. Times. Read about Glendale's drug problems here.

"According to the city's Quality of Life report, which was released Oct. 30 and uses 2005 data from the L.A. County Department of Public Health, Glendale had L.A. County's highest percentage of adults who reported using marijuana and cocaine." Considering, it's probably a good idea to avoid Glenoaks Boulevard whenever possible.

Another great thing about North Hollyw...uh, I mean Toluca Terrace

...is the public dog park at Victory and Whitnall. I checked it out last night and was very amused by all the doggies getting their runs in and seeing their doggie friends. There's a spot for little dogs and one for big dogs, although yesterday seemed to be German Shepherd day there.

TJ Maxx is coming to Burbank

Burbank and the east SFV are finally getting a TJ Maxx. It's going into Empire Center, in one of the (several) spaces that have been vacant there since last year. Now, we won't have to drive to La Canada (unless we want the real designer stuff) or Granada Hills to get our Maxx on.

Burbank still has lots and lots of empty large retail spaces. Is there anything else that can fill those besides Korean churches and fly-by-night schools? I think we pretty much have all the other retail chains.

What's taking so long, not that we even care anymore

My clients made an offer a week ago Monday on the house above. It was a decent offer, a little less than full price. At the time we were told that there were 3 other offers. I was also told that the seller, who is flipping this, would look at the offers mid-week.

It's eight days later and we still haven't gotten a counter. I can only imagine how many offers there are in on this property now. I was told that the listing agent isn't in the office much because he spends his days at trustee sales and doesn't come in until after 4:30. And then I was told that the seller only reviews offers on weekends. And then I was told that we'd have a counter offer at full price yesterday after 5:30. It didn't arrive. What a way for a listing agent to service a listing!

But all is well. My clients have not only lost interest, but are already in escrow on another home.

Problems with new construction

My clients Briana and Michael closed yesterday on a unit here at 5227 Denny in North Hollywood. It's a brand new building and the escrow went very smoothly (the developer was smart and secured FHA financing before marketing any of the units). However, in spite of our inspections, walk throughs with the contractors, lists of repairs, etc., many items still remain to be fixed or done in the unit. At our walk-through the contractor indicated it all would be done before closing. Now, the story is that all the remaining work has to be arranged, scheduled, and coordinated with the other recently sold units in the building. Am I naive to think this should have been done before closing?

Since I know you don't believe me, here's...

This is from non-client friend Joselle about her brand new purchase and what she had to go through to get it.

"It's a little 1950 house with some nice period details. Big lot (for L.A.) It's... in a lovely neighborhood in Sherman Oaks. We will be just the third owners! It was the 4th house we bid on. Each had many offers. We lost one even though we went $110,000.00 over asking price! Crazy market here!"

Her purchase price is in the high $400's.